More bad weather coming to Boquete Panama

Posted by Lee on November 4, 2009

An area of low pressure with a surface circulation has developed in the Southwestern Caribbean, off the coast of Costa Rica. This disturbance, designated Invest 97L by the National Hurricane Center this morning, appears likely to develop into a tropical depression over the next two days. Satellite loops clearly show that 97L has a surface circulation, and low-level spiral bands have begun to develop. There is not very much heavy thunderstorm activity, though it is steadily increasing. An ASCAT pass from 10pm EST last night showed top winds of about 30 mph in the heaviest thunderstorms.

Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 97L.

The disturbance is currently under moderate wind shear, 10 – 15 knots, and shear is expected to remain in the moderate range for the next five days over the Western Caribbean. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are 29°C and the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential is about 40 kJ/cm^2, which is plenty of energy for a hurricane to form. There is dry air over the northern Caribbean, but this is too far north to slow down development over the next three days. The main limiting factor for development will be the slow movement of the 97L, which will allow it to stir up cold water from the depths, cooling surface SSTs.

The forecast for 97L
Steering currents are weak in the Southwest Caribbean, and 97L will move little over the next three days. If the disturbance intensifies into a tropical storm in the next three days, as seems likely, 97L will tap into moisture from the Pacific Ocean. This moisture will flow over Costa Rica, western Panama, and southern Nicaragua into 97L’s circulation, bringing 4 – 8 inches of rain to these areas Wednesday through Friday. There is a high potential for life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in these regions. By Friday, steering currents are expected to pull 97L north or northwest, along the coast of Nicaragua or inland over northeastern Nicaragua and Honduras. By Monday, 97L may pass over Western Cuba and enter the Gulf of Mexico, as predicted by the ECMWF model; an alternate solution, provided by the GFS model, keeps the storm farther south, pushing it into Belize and Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula. With the storm just beginning to organize and steering currents weak, it is impossible to rate the likelihood of these scenarios. NHC is currently giving 97L a medium (30 – 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. I rate 97L’s chances at high (greater than 50%). An Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled to investigate 97L on Wednesday afternoon.

I received this information in an email from a reader. The original source is here.

Comments

4 Responses to “More bad weather coming to Boquete Panama”

1. @panamajoules says:

   November 4, 2009 at 9:32 am

   You can see satellite image at:

   http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200997_sat.html
2. Lloyd Cripe says:

   November 4, 2009 at 9:55 am

   Lee: I find it unacceptable that you published the above information without making clear your source. You obviously copied it from Dr. Jeff Master’s Blogg. Please have the decency to note other people’s work. You can read all of the info here: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1369

   Sincerely,

   Lloyd Cripe
3. Bob says:

   November 4, 2009 at 3:34 pm

   Your Kidding, RIGHT?
4. Bob Wolfe says:

   November 4, 2009 at 4:45 pm

   Looks to me like the photo is courtesy of NASA (public domain) and wunderground.com is clearly published at the bottom of the photo. Unless you were referring to giving credit to Zeus, God of sky and weather, in which case I agree. Anyway, discussion of 97L is now moot, as it is currently Tropical Storm Ida.